 Actual and potential water conflicts between Bangladesh and India loom large in the next 25 years. It is obviously in the interest of Bangladesh to prepare for these conflicts. One of these conflicts is now much in the news - the Tipaimukh dam project. This article first reviews the general framework for the forthcoming conflicts over water and how to prepare for these; then the Tipaimukh project is discussed. There are three things that are needed to mitigate prospective conflicts. The conflicts arise largely from Indian extractions of water reducing the inflows into Bangladesh. There may also be water quality problems.
(A) Expand and improve the flow measurement systems for all rivers entering the nation from India. Expand and improve water quality measurements of the water entering Bangladesh. These measurement systems should be transparent with involvement of the universities and an open invitation to Indian technicians to review and comment on procedures and collected data. These flow measurements are not simple in the unstable river systems found in the eastern sub-continent. The difficulty should not deter the effort needed. This flow data is essential for all actions and negotiations. The Indian government may be measuring flows in the rivers on the Indian side of the border. The hydrologists on both sides will need to work out an agreed set of flow data for each river crossing the border. In the same way one should seek to reach agreed measurements of water quality.
(B) Negotiate treaties with India establishing Bangladesh's share of the water, river by river, month by month, with some allowance for natural variations. The water quality standards to be met by incoming water should also be established and agreed. These treaties should include clear procedures for arbitration of disputes and sanctions for violations. Such treaties tend to be one sided. India is promising an agreed volume and quality of water to Bangladesh. The burden for restraint and action rest with India. Due to this asymmetry of responsibility the Indian government will always be reluctant to address these issues seriously. Bangladesh must aggressively seek to negotiate such agreements.
(C) If treaties cannot be negotiated in a reasonable time then Bangladesh should issue its own claims on the water flows based on existing international law, register such claims with appropriate authorities and friendly countries, and follow up with regular systematic reports on water flows and water quality. In the absence of a treaty whenever the water flow or water quality drops below the Bangladesh claim, then the nation should be in court demanding its rights.
The importance and urgency of this programme is obvious. India is moving steadily to exploit its rivers in its own interests ignoring their legal obligation to downstream nations. Enough of attacks on India; Bangladesh needs to get down to the business of measurement of flows, negotiation of sharing agreements where possible, and staking a legal claim to water when agreements cannot be reached. The nation is far behind in achieving this goal.
Such an effort requires training of hydrologist and water chemists; improving water quality laboratories; investing inflow measuring equipment; training diplomats and lawyers; and studying existing national and international water law and treaties. Bangladesh must get ready for the coming "water wars" with systematic, careful preparation. It seems to me to be as serious as military defence and should command appropriate resources.
The Tipaimukh dam situation illustrates the issues very well. What is proposed by the Indians is construction of a hydropower project, with the dam site close to the Bangladesh border. The project is reported to be designed with no irrigation usage. The dam will establish a reservoir behind the dam that will catch water in the rainy season and release it in the dry season. Of course water is flowing out of the dam continuously but the overall effect will reduce wet season flows and increase dry season flows. The reservoir will create a large surface area of water that will lose water from evaporation and gain water from rainfall; probably on balance water is lost. The total water flowing into Bangladesh in one year will probably be reduced, but the distribution of the flow will be smoothed - more water in the dry season and less in the rainy season.
For Bangladesh the question is whether the redistribution of water from wet season to dry season is good or bad!
1. Will the reduced wet season flows adversely affect the aman crop irrigation? Probably not, as most aman crop water comes from rain. Nevertheless, there may be areas where water is extracted from the river for irrigation in the aman season. Bangladesh authorities should estimate any such losses; it may mean the costs of pumping from the river to the paddy field are higher as the river level is lower (in the wet season).
2. Will the reduced wet season flows mean that ground water recharge on the Bangladesh side is reduced? To some extent, yes; but how much? This is unlikely to be a major effect as most recharge is from rainwater.
3. Will the reduced wet season flow reduce flood loses? Almost certainly yes. In this sense the Tipaimukh dam will reduce flood caused loses of crops and assets in Bangladesh.
4. Will the increased dry season flow help irrigation? Definitely! The cost of surface irrigation will decline as the pumping cost is lower; while there will be some favourable impact on water table levels in the dry season this is unlikely to be significant.
The impact of the dam on Bangladesh can only be answered by reviewing the details of rice cultivation, irrigation methods on the Bangladesh side and the expected changes in the river flow. On balance the impact on agriculture is probably going to be favourable, reducing flood losses and improving irrigation. There is no real basis for believing that the impact of the dam will be detrimental to Bangladesh agriculture!
Another consequence of the construction of the dam is the risk of earthquakes induced by the dam. This is a serious issue for Bangladesh. The risks are complex and Bangladesh probably needs to engage an expert to prepare an assessment. However, for the size of this project the risks seem not excessive Nevertheless an assessment of such risks must be made. The Indian geologists are particularly strong in RIS (Reservoir induced sesmimology) but a Chinese expert would be preferred!
Use of the river for transportation would be improved with the smoothing of the water flows, in particular raising water levels in the dry season.
Finally, there are suggestions of unfavourable impact on flora or fauna. It is difficult to get excited about this.
Indeed, instead of criticism of the Tipaimukh project one should look for opportunities. Here are three things to do:
1.) Buy insurance against an earthquake in the area that might be caused by the dam. Use an Indian insurance company and see what premium they offer. If one gets a number of premium offers then one has a measure of the earthquake risk! The Indian government should of course pay the premium!
2.) Offer the Indian government a deal for Bangladesh to finance 50 per cent of the cost of the dam and the power stations in return for:
(a) Fifty per cent of the power
(b) The right to develop irrigation projects.
3.) Investigate the potential of irrigation projects i.e. constructing canals from below the dam to take water to irrigation areas in Bangladesh during the dry season. Since the dam is close to the border, the real irrigation potential, if any, is inside Bangladesh. If feasible, why not make use of it?
I believe the ADB would be quite interested in a project to support these three opportunities as well as to help establish the scientific water flow in quality and quality of the rivers. There is potential for cooperation between the two countries to the benefit of both. Rather than seeing only problems one should seek opportunity. The best way to keep peace is to prepare for war! Such preparation by training many more hydrologists, water chemists, lawyers and diplomats and providing them the necessary equipment is now needed. |